This attractive dual-site doubleheader showcases four distinctive styles and story lines. Bute, who many have deemed the world’s best super middleweight, tangles with a Colombian challenger who wants to change his recent bad fortunes in high-profile fights. Meanwhile Pavlik desires to regain a place in the pound-for-pound rankings while the slick and quick Martinez, a natural 154-pounder, again invades the middleweights in search of a monumental victory.
Who will achieve their goals Saturday night? A look at the CompuBox numbers could offer hints, and we will begin with factors that could influence the Pavlik-Martinez showdown.
Pavlik’s offense: At his best Pavlik is a terrifying offensive force. The average middleweight averages 58.6 punches per round, but against Jermain Taylor (first and second fights), Bronco McKart, Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino Pavlik averaged 65.7, 70.4, 88.5, 77.2 and 90.8 punches respectively. And those who used an all-out attack paid the price, as the power punch numbers against Taylor (47.6 percent, first fight) and Espino (55.6 percent) show.
Pavlik’s 6-2 ½ frame, 75-inch reach and aggressiveness forces opponents to confront him at every turn and such will be the case against Martinez. Pavlik will keep coming no matter what style he confronts because one can’t argue with 36 wins and 32 knockouts in 37 fights. The difference between those who utterly fail against Pavlik and those who achieve a measure of success is how they counteract Pavlik’s tactics, and Martinez can borrow bits and pieces from each to formulate his battle plan.
Hopkins – and to a lesser degree Taylor in the second fight – used movement and sharpness to limit Pavlik’s success. Taylor threw only 38 punches per round but landed 39 percent overall (178 of 456) and 46.5 percent of his power shots (76 of 164). Hopkins – an expert when it comes to “sludging” his rivals’ offenses – kept Pavlik to 38.6 punches per round, 23.3 percent overall accuracy and 29.1 power shot precision by dictating the tempo. “B-Hop” threw more punches than usual (44.2) but made the most of them as he landed 32.5 percent overall (172 of 530) and 48.7 percent of his power shots.(148 of 304) in out-landing Pavlik 172-108 overall.
Martinez must negotiate a delicate tightrope in that he must be defensively responsible but not be too timid, as Marco Antonio Rubio was in the early rounds. Because he didn’t take the initiative from the start Rubio allowed Pavlik to average 77.2 punches per round to his 39.0. That enabled the Ohioan to pile up advantages of 695-351 (punches thrown) 146-82 (overall connects), 339-197 (thrown jabs), 76-50 (jab connects), 356-154 (power punches thrown) and 70-32 (power connects). If Pavlik successfully pushes the pace from the opening bell, it will be tough for the shorter and naturally smaller Martinez to stave off the avalanche.
Pavlik’s defense: Even when Pavlik is having his way, “The Ghost” is not invisible on defense. Taylor landed an alarming 64.8 percent of his power shots (105 of 162) in their first fight and 46.3 percent in the rematch. Even the courageous but limited Espino landed 46 percent of his punches overall (155 of 335) and 48 percent of his power shots (152 of 320) and as one will see in the next paragraph the out-gunned Bronco McKart got in more than a few licks. That should be a source of encouragement for the sharp-shooting Martinez, but he must still be wary of Pavlik’s toughness and drive to succeed.
The southpaw factor: Even though he lost by sixth round TKO McKart proved that the southpaw stance affects Pavlik’s accuracy. Although Pavlik averaged 88.5 punches per round, McKart limited his overall accuracy to 25.2 percent (134 of 531), 11.9 percent of his jabs (14 of 118) and 29.1 percent of his power shots (120 of 413). But while McKart was very accurate (47 percent overall and 56 percent in power shots) he didn’t throw enough (39.7 punches per round). Martinez must maintain a high enough work rate to keep Pavlik somewhat occupied with defense and not teeing off on offense.
Martinez versus volume: Martinez couldn’t prevent Paul Williams from revving up the offense (81.6 punches per round) but Martinez fought him to a near standstill by flashing enough power to make “The Punisher” respect him and making the most of his countering opportunities. Despite throwing 341 fewer punches (638-979), 156 less jabs (192-348) and 185 fewer power shots (446-631), Martinez kept the gap in connects down as Williams led by just 300-254 overall, 94-71 in jabs and 206-183 in power shots. That kept him in the fight and led many to say he should have won. He won’t out-throw Pavlik but if he eludes enough of Pavlik’s fire while taking advantage of his looser defense he can pile up enough points to take the belt.
Prediction: Martinez is slick and quick but the natural 154-pounder won’t be strong enough to hold off Pavlik’s juggernaut forever. As was the case against another volume puncher Antonio Margarito, Martinez’s style will present problems in the first half of the fight but the demands of holding off the volume puncher forever will eventually become too much. Pavlik’s superior size, numbers and impact will once again be the difference as he scores a late-round TKO.
Lucian Bute vs. Edison MirandaView BTOTView Previous StatsBute W 12 Andrade I |
Bute KO 4 Andrade II |
Pavlik KO 7 Miranda |
Abraham W 12 Miranda
Bute-Miranda doesn’t hold the same level of intrigue because (1) the transplanted Romanian is fighting at his adopted home arena for the 11th time in his last 12 fights; (2) he looked so destructive in the Andrade rematch; (3) Miranda has lost his last three “step-up” fights.
Two wild cards are at play, however. First, Miranda has rededicated himself to boxing and as such he has been in almost constant training since last July. Second, he hired veteran cornerman/motivator Joe Goossen, who has taken several fighters to world championships. Are these developments game-changers or window dressing? And what do the numbers say?
The 6-2 Bute stands three inches taller and is a very sharp boxer. Until he was nearly knocked out by Andrade in their first match, Bute’s outside boxing was dominant. He out-landed Andrade 200-175 despite throwing 56 fewer punches (617-673) and scored on 43.1 percent of his power shots (138 of 320). After redoubling his efforts, Bute has improved his marksmanship as well as his power.
Against Fernando Zuniga and Andrade the second time, Bute’s output dropped from 51.4 punches per round to 48.5 (Zuniga) and 47.5 (Andrade II) but his connect percentage rose from 32.4 percent to 35.1 (Zuniga) and 35.8 (Andrade II). More importantly, Bute’s power punching accuracy rose from 43.1 to 45.7 (Zuniga) and 52.4 (Andrade II) and both fights ended in dominating fourth round TKOs. It is not good news for Miranda that Andrade and Zuniga are aggressive bombers just like he is.
For Miranda to win, he must tighten up his defense yet throw enough and land enough to earn Bute’s respect and stay in the fight. He did that against Howard Eastman in out-landing him 101-72 (overall) and 71-47 (power) before flattening him with two big rights in round seven. He also forced fellow power-puncher Allan Green to respect his power enough to hold down his output (51.6 for Miranda, 39.6 for Green) enough to win a 10-round decision. Miranda’s numerical edges weren’t huge (101-72 overall, 30-25 in jabs, 71-47 in power shots) but they were enough.
Miranda’s last three losses were to boxer-punchers Ward and Abraham and volume-puncher Pavlik. Ward showed his entire repertoire of skills and styles over the 12 rounds and piled up bulges of 252-104 (overall) and 190-79 (power) while hitting Miranda with 54 percent of his power punches.
Miranda threw the kitchen sink at Abraham in their rematch but, like Ward, precision and power was the key as Abraham landed 43.8 percent of his power shots while keeping Miranda’s success to 20.8.percent.
Pavlik simply used blunt force trauma to score the seventh round knockout by going 242 of 539 (45 percent to Miranda’s 111 of 504 (22 percent) overall and 193 of 418 (46 percent) to 90 of 345 (26 percent) in power shots.
Prediction: To win Miranda must utilize what I call the “spaghetti strategy,” which is throw everything he can and hope something sticks to the wall. Otherwise, Bute’s advantages in height, reach, speed, skill and home field will crush him. Bute by seventh-round TKO.
